Bhupinder Hooda: Will He Be the Face of Congress as Haryana’s Next Chief Minister in 2024?

Bhupinder Hooda: Will He Be the Face of Congress as Haryana’s Next Chief Minister in 2024?

Political Analysis of Haryana Vidhan Sabha Voting Pattern: Bhupinder Hooda’s Prospects for Chief Minister

Saptrishi Soni:

The 2024 Haryana Vidhan Sabha elections have witnessed significant shifts in voter behavior, with the Congress party, under the leadership of Bhupinder Singh Hooda, emerging as a frontrunner. As per exit polls, Hooda has become the most preferred candidate for the Chief Minister’s position, with nearly 31% of respondents supporting him over BJP’s incumbent leader, Nayab Singh Saini, who garnered around 22% support.

One of the key takeaways from the voting patterns is the anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP, which has been in power since 2014. The state has experienced dissatisfaction over rising unemployment, inflation, and issues related to law and order. Hooda, as the leader of the opposition, has consistently focused on these issues, highlighting how Haryana has slipped from its top rank in per capita income, investments, and development under the BJP government.

The exit polls indicate that the Congress is likely to secure between 50 and 58 seats in the 90-member Assembly, giving it a clear majority. This is a significant shift from previous elections, where the BJP dominated with a coalition government.

At 76, Bhupinder Hooda remains a central figure in Haryana politics. He served as Chief Minister from 2005 to 2014 and is seen as a leader who can bring stability and progress back to the state. His experience and connections with different communities—Jats, OBCs, Muslims, and even a section of Sikhs—make him a unifying candidate.

Hooda’s appeal extends across age groups, with a strong base among voters aged 35-54. This demographic support indicates his ability to engage with a mature electorate that has witnessed the state’s highs and lows during his tenure and the BJP’s rule. Despite his popularity, the road to becoming Chief Minister is not without challenges. The Congress leadership has yet to officially declare its CM candidate. Hooda has been careful not to project any internal divisions within the party, emphasizing that the Congress will decide its leader after consultations with elected MLAs and the party high command.

However, there are other Congress leaders in the race, including Hooda’s son, Deepender Singh Hooda, and Kumari Selja. While Deepender is a popular young leader, especially among the youth, and is closely aligned with his father’s political ideology, he may step aside in favor of his father.

If Bhupinder Hooda is not selected as the Chief Minister by the Congress high command, it could trigger several political consequences. Hooda has a deep-rooted influence in the state, and sidelining him could result in factionalism within the Haryana Congress unit. Such a move might alienate his loyal voter base, particularly the Jat community, who have historically backed him.

On the other hand, if Hooda is passed over, it is likely he will continue to wield significant influence from behind the scenes, as a mentor to the next generation of Congress leaders. He could push for his son, Deepender, to take a larger role in state politics, ensuring that the Hooda legacy remains intact. However, sidelining a leader of Hooda’s stature could risk internal discord, potentially weakening the Congress’s position in the long term.

If Bhupinder Hooda is denied the Chief Minister ship, the Congress could face disillusionment within its ranks, especially among his supporters. Factionalism may become more pronounced, weakening the party ahead of future elections. Moreover, any perceived favoritism toward a younger leader like Deepender could backfire, as the senior Hooda still holds sway over the larger, older electorate.

For the state of Haryana, a weakened Congress or internal conflict could lead to political instability. Hooda’s track record of governance, which emphasized infrastructure development, rural upliftment, and sports, is still remembered fondly. Should he be sidelined, there’s a chance that the state’s development agenda could lose momentum.

Bhupinder Hooda’s prospects for becoming the next Chief Minister of Haryana look strong, given the voting patterns and exit poll predictions. His experience, combined with his wide support across different communities, makes him the ideal candidate to lead the state once again. However, internal party dynamics could pose a challenge, and the Congress leadership will have to navigate this carefully to avoid alienating key voter segments and maintain party unity.

If Hooda is not made Chief Minister, the Congress risks internal strife, and Haryana may miss out on the developmental push that Hooda’s leadership could bring. The upcoming decision by the Congress high command will not only shape Hooda’s political future but also have a lasting impact on the state’s governance.

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