Congress and BJP Stay Silent on Rebel Candidates Contesting Independently, Possible Post-Election Alliances Loom

Congress and BJP Stay Silent on Rebel Candidates Contesting Independently, Possible Post-Election Alliances Loom

As Haryana gears up for the 15th Assembly General Elections scheduled for October 5, 2024, both the Congress and BJP find themselves facing a delicate situation. The two leading political parties have remained notably silent in addressing the issue of rebel candidates—party members who, after being denied tickets, have chosen to contest independently. Despite the fact that voting is just around the corner, the Congress and BJP have not taken any strong disciplinary action against these rebel candidates, which contrasts sharply with past practices. Five years ago, the then-state Congress president had expelled 16 rebels from the party, setting a precedent that is not being followed this time around. The failure to act has raised questions about the parties’ strategies, as both seem to be eyeing potential post-election alliances with successful independent candidates to form a government.

Currently, both Congress and BJP have fielded candidates in 89 of the 90 assembly seats in Haryana. The Congress, in an unusual move, decided not to nominate a candidate from the 57-Bhiwani Assembly seat, extending support to Comrade Om Prakash from the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Meanwhile, BJP faced a setback in the 45-Sirsa Assembly seat, where their candidate, Rohtash Jangra, withdrew his nomination on September 16, the last day for withdrawals. Though the reasons behind this withdrawal remain unclear, speculation suggests that the BJP’s potential backing of Gopal Kanda, who is contesting from Halopa, may have played a role. Kanda, a controversial figure, could be part of the BJP’s strategy in the region, contributing to an atmosphere of uncertainty around the Sirsa seat.

Despite significant efforts by senior party leaders to persuade many rebel candidates to withdraw their nominations by September 16, a large number of dissidents remain in the fray. Reports indicate that approximately two and a half dozen rebel Congress leaders and about one and a half dozen rebel BJP leaders are contesting as independents or under the banner of other political parties. These rebels pose a serious challenge to the official candidates of their original parties, potentially splitting the vote and affecting the electoral outcomes in several key constituencies.

Both the Congress and BJP appear to be treading carefully, possibly refraining from expelling these rebel leaders from the party due to future strategic considerations. This hesitation could indicate that both parties are keeping their options open for post-election alliances, should the need arise. If any of these rebel candidates win as independents, they could play a crucial role in the formation of the next state government. By not taking immediate disciplinary action, both parties may be hoping to keep the door open for negotiations after the election results are announced on October 8.

Historically, Haryana has seen rebel candidates cause significant disruptions in elections. Independent candidates, particularly those who were once part of the main political parties, often command a loyal voter base that can siphon off crucial votes from official party candidates. In several constituencies, rebels could act as vote-splitters, creating unpredictable outcomes and potentially tilting the balance in favor of smaller parties or other independents.

This strategy of silence on the part of Congress and BJP contrasts with past actions. Five years ago, ahead of the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, the Congress took decisive action against 16 rebel candidates, including senior leader Chaudhary Nirmal Singh and his daughter Chitra Sarwara, both of whom ran as independents after being denied Congress tickets. At that time, the Congress expelled the duo, along with other rebel leaders, from the party for six years. The episode not only highlighted the internal strife within the Congress but also demonstrated the party’s willingness to discipline dissidents to maintain cohesion. Interestingly, Nirmal Singh was welcomed back into the party earlier this year and is currently contesting as the official Congress candidate from the Ambala City seat. However, his daughter Chitra, once again denied a Congress ticket, has chosen to run as an independent candidate from Ambala Cantt, setting the stage for a repeat of the 2019 scenario.

The presence of rebel candidates from both major parties could have a significant impact on the outcome of the upcoming Haryana Assembly elections. Independent candidates, especially those who were previously associated with either Congress or BJP, have the potential to split the vote in several key constituencies. This fragmentation could benefit smaller parties or candidates from third-party alliances, making it difficult for Congress or BJP to secure a clear majority.

In particular, these rebel candidates could alter the electoral landscape in constituencies where the vote margin is traditionally narrow. With around two dozen Congress rebels and over a dozen BJP rebels still in the fray, these dissidents are poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the election results. In constituencies where caste dynamics, regional loyalties, and personal networks play a crucial role, independent candidates with established support bases can tip the scales. For instance, if a rebel candidate captures just 10-15% of the vote in a close contest, it could prevent either Congress or BJP from securing a victory, opening up the possibility for a surprise win by a third-party candidate.

The fact that neither Congress nor BJP has taken strict disciplinary action against these rebels suggests that both parties may be preparing for a scenario where no single party wins a decisive majority. In such a situation, victorious independent candidates could become kingmakers, capable of swinging the balance of power in favor of one party or the other. By keeping their rebels within arm’s reach, Congress and BJP are likely hedging their bets, preparing to court these potential powerbrokers in the event of a hung assembly.

the silence from both Congress and BJP regarding the rebels contesting independently underscores the complex and strategic nature of Haryana’s political landscape. Both parties are likely calculating the potential value of keeping these rebels close, given that post-election alliances may hinge on the support of independent candidates. With the electoral map in flux and numerous factors at play, the role of rebels could prove decisive in shaping the outcome of the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections. As voters prepare to head to the polls, the impact of these independent candidates remains a key factor that could significantly alter the political equation in the state.

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